October 26 2004, 7:22 AM
Colorado has nine electoral votes -- more than enough to tip the balance in this year's tight presidential race. So how do you find the latest polling numbers showing who's likely to get those precious votes? I like the Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. First of all, it's free. Second, it's updated continuously. Third, it has a page devoted to Colorado. And the tally considers numerous polls, not just those of one side. Zogby began tracking the ten battleground states Monday. Here are the numbers:
According to Zogby's polls, conducted Oct. 21-24, Bush is currently leading in six states (FL, NM, NV, WI, IA, and OH), while Kerry is leading in four states (CO, MN, PA, MI).Zogby's Monday numbers for Colorado show Kerry ahead of Bush 49-45 among likely voters. The author of the Electoral Vote Predictor site was skeptical on Monday about those results.
Some of these results are very surprising. Is Kerry really leading by 4% in Colorado? Is Bush really leading by 5% in New Mexico? I don't believe either of those. They are in conflict with too many other polls. Another example: the current Ohio University poll gives Kerry a 6% lead in that state, whereas Zogby puts Bush ahead by 5%. The MoE on these polls is 4%, so an 11% change in a couple of days in a state with so few undecideds is impossible. I think there are serious problems with all the polls.That skepticism may have been well placed. This morning's Zogby numbers have tightened -- Kerry's Colorado lead has slipped to 48-47. You can judge for yourself by studying the results from past Colorado polls.